Betting the Bears vs. Bucs: Do you trust the Bears as a huge underdog?

I wrote the game preview for this the other day and I have to say, I am not feeling optimistic.

Surprisingly, neither are most of you, either. Typically, if I’m feeling particularly down about Chicago’s up coming opponent there’s usually at least several commenters telling me that I’m wrong and that the Bears just need to do x, y and z and they can pull off the upset.

But I am not so sure many see the path this week, with the Super Bowl champion Bucs rolling with Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin.

Before we get more into the Bears game though, let’s take a look at the WCG Survivor and Pick ‘Ems pools.

In Survivor we still have yet to lose anyone to a third strike, just losing people who don’t make a pick. Although, one unlucky soul picked the Bills last week. That fourth and 1 must have really stung them.

In the Pick ‘Ems, danferindustries paced the group with a 12-point week, while MonstersoftheMidway continues to stay on top with 66 points and a 10-point week last week.

Now, for the Bears...

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12, O/U 47.5)

According to Draftkings Sportsbooks, the Bears are 12-point underdogs to the Bucs on the road and the over/under currently sits at 47.5.

The Bears aren’t good in these situations. Kevin Fishbain, of The Athletic reports that the Bears are 1-15 straight up in games as 12-point or more underdogs. Their lone win came in 1999 against the Vikings.

According to my records, the Bears haven’t been a double-digit underdog under Matt Nagy. The biggest has been 9.5 underdogs to the Saints in the playoffs last year. This season they are 1-2 as underdogs with their only win being to the Raiders two weeks ago as 5.5 point underdogs.

So with that said, I am actually laying the point with Tampa Bay. I hate to do it because I think that the Bears defense could keep it close, but ultimately I just don’t feel good about this one at all for Chicago.

For the total, I’ll go over. I know I’ve been bad at picking the totals but if you’re laying the points and think the Bucs will win, it’s really the only logical side. I think the Bucs can get at least 28 points and if the Bears are going to be in garbage time, well then it’ll work out.

Alternatively, the Bucs secondary isn’t good so the Bears could potentially get some points of their own, but we all know how likely that is.

For my survivor pick I am going with Arizona against Houston. I have luckily not had to burn a lot of good teams yet, but I think now is the time for the Cardinals, the Texans have been awful and Arizona under Kliff Kingsbury have been prone to fading in the second half of the season, so let’s use them before things start getting dicey later in the year.

My picks: Bucs -12, over 47.5, Arizona (survivor)

Season record: 4-8 overall, 2-4 ATS