Betting the Bears as home underdogs against Niners

Chicago returns home and has a game against a winnable opponent for a change, as the 2-4 San Francisco 49ers come to town.

Unfortunately, it says a lot about what the sportsbooks think of the Bears since, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bears are 4-point underdogs.

Even with the Niners looking pretty lackluster themselves against the Colts, they still are held in a higher regard than the Bears, who got absolutely curb-stomped by the Bucs last week.

Before we get more in to the game, let’s look at the respective WCG leagues.

In the survivor pool there still isn’t much to report, the chalk picks keep cashing for the group and we still have no one out on strikes when they’ve made all their picks. No one took a strike last week on a pick.

In the pick ‘ems MonstersoftheMidway held on to his lead with a decent eight point week and now has 74 on the season. The week’s high scorer was actually Raging Redbeards who had 11. It was a tough week with most people scoring between 8 and 10 points. There were only two 11s on the week.

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4, O/U 39.5)

The Bears opened as three or 3.5 point underdogs but the money is clearly on the 49ers as the line has now moved to four.

This is surprising because the Bears have followed a pattern of covering against bad opponents at home (granted, the Bengals are now good, but they didn’t have many expectations back in week two).

The Bears were 3-3 against the spread as home underdogs last year, winning against the Bucs and Texans outright and covering against the Saints while they lost to the Colts, Vikings and Packers.

I think that there is a lot of recency bias in this number, San Francisco played in primetime in a bad weather game at home that got away from them late. The Bears got the doors blown off of them by the defending Super Bowl champs.

I actually feel comfortable taking the Bears as home dogs. I think this is a good spot for them, it’s a winnable game in a stretch of very tough games. They’ve had the COVID stuff this week but maybe that becomes kind of a rallying cry or at least, with head coach Matt Nagy away, it shakes up the game planning a little bit.

I still think the under is the play, neither of these teams is offensively going to scare anyone and both defenses are formidable.

In survivor, I’m taking the Rams against the Texans. The Texans could get a boost if Tyrod Taylor is back and if that’s the case, I might switch to the Chiefs who have a good get-right spot at home against the Giants.

My picks: Bears +4, under 39.5, Rams (survivor)

Record: 3-4 ATS, 5-9 overall