Betting the Bears as home dogs again

Another week of NFL upsets and fans are once again asking themselves “which teams are actually good?”

With Thanksgiving just around the corner, it’s becoming crunch time around the league. Time for teams to prove themselves as contenders or pretenders, put up or shut up and all of those other cliches.

The Bears are no different. Depending on the source they are or are not “in the hunt” graphics that we’ve all come to know and love in recent years. But at 3-5 they probably shouldn’t be.

They can change that this weekend, but it won’t be easy. According to DraftKings Sportsbook Chicago are 6-point underdogs to the Ravens.

It’s worth noting though, that Baltimore opened as 6.5 point favorites so someone is betting on the Bears.

Before we get to that though, let’s look at the WCG leagues.

In the survivor league we lost the most people we have in one single week, with eight people eliminated, mostly thanks to the Buccaneers, but one brave soul took the Lions and someone else had the Steelers. One other person got booted by the Ravens.

Five others took strikes and now Crackedcactus Irredeemables is the lone participant with zero strikes.

In Pick ‘ems, MonstersoftheMidway remains on top, now up to 97 points. In a testament to all of the upsets last week, the high scorer managed just seven points.

Now, on to the main event.

Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Chicago Bears (O/U 44.5 according to DraftKings Sportsbook)

It’s no secret that the Bears aren’t very good coming off the bye under Matt Nagy. They’re 0-3 straight up and 0-3 against the spread.

Chicago has lost its last three straight up and ATS as home underdogs, they last covered against the Texans last year in this spot.

They’re 2-6 in their last eight as home dogs against the spread as well.

So all of those trends say that this isn’t a good spot for Chicago.

However, Baltimore has been worse than the Bears against the spread (3-6) and are 2-2 straight up on the road.

And they’re 1-3 against the spread on the road, all of which games that they were favored in. In fact their only win was when they were 1-point favorites against the Broncos.

Perhaps this helps explain why the number went down to as much as four, but after the injury report started to come out it jumped back up to Ravens -6.

I liked the Bears as home dogs, especially when you consider how the Ravens have played on the road as big favorites. However, the injury situation with the Bears scares me though; No Robinson, Hicks or Jackson is a scary situation for both the offense and defense. Now the Ravens will be able to focus on Darnell Mooney and their running game will have an easier time.

I think I am going to have to lay the points here, but I don’t feel great about it.

As for the total, I lean the over. There is rain in the forecast for Sunday morning and even with Soldier Field’s turf, the Ravens offense can run the ball and the Bears have had trouble stopping it. I think there’s a chance for some points.

In survivor, I currently have the Titans locked in against the Texans at home. I think that the Titans could cover 10.5, but all I need is for Tennessee to win straight up and I think they can do it.

My picks: Ravens -6, over 44.5, Titans (survivor)

Bears record: 4-5 ATS, 6-12 overall