The Bears have beat the Packers exactly three times in their last 23 meetings going back to the 2010 season.
The Bears haven’t covered against Green Bay since 2018, when their last victory against the team came.
But before I get too much into the sorrow-filled recent past of Bears-Packers let’s check in on the WCG leagues.
Over in survivor we’re down to two. Jeff, Gridironborn, has two strikes but is still alive, while CrackedCactuses Irredeemables is, amazingly perfect. Two were eliminated last week by picking the Vikings.
In the pick ‘ems, Macksmith remains the leader with 124 points, while MonstersoftheMidway is just four points behind.
There’s just a few weeks left in the regular season so now every pick matters just a little bit more.
Let’s get to it.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5, O/U 43)
Find me a betting stat that favors the Bears this week. I dare you.
It’s almost impossible. The odds are incredibly stacked against the Bears and I don’t just mean by the 12.5 point underdog line that DraftKings Sportsbook has them as.
The Packers have the best record against the spread in the league this year, they have dominated this series and from there it just gets worse.
The Bears last covered against the Packers in December of 2018 and haven’t covered as an underdog to them since Matt Nagy’s first game back in September of 2018.
Matt Nagy is 0-6 as an underdog of 7.5 or more, including 0-3 this year (against the Rams, Browns and Bucs).
I don’t see how Justin Fields is going to make a bigger difference here. The scheme itself is so messed up and we’ve seen how this team finds ways to shoot itself in the foot too.
I know that 12.5 is a ton in the NFL and I know that it’s tempting to take the points and hope for the Bears to backdoor it, but frankly I think that’s their only shot.
I hate the way this series has trended, I know that Aaron Rodgers is going to want to drive a dagger into the Bears’ heart one more time and I know that Matt Nagy is on his way out and I just don’t see how he scheme’s the Bears to a win.
To make matters worse, the average margin of victory for Green Bay in their last five wins over the Bears is 12 points.
I’m so bad at the totals now I don’t know what to do anymore. I am taking the over because, again, I think that a blowout is likely and if the Bears do end up getting some late scores for the backdoor cover, it will send the total over.
For survivor, I would take Seattle if I were still in it. Or, if you really want to be a glutton for punishment, take Green Bay.
My picks: Packers -12.5, over 43.5, Seattle Seahawks (survivor)
2021 record: 6-5-1 ATS, 7-13-1 overall