I should’ve known better last week.
But it’s hard to expect the Bears to show up and cover on the road, with their third quarterback, in one of the toughest stadiums in the league to play in.
Alas, we’re moving on and trying to get right and finish the season strong.
Speaking of, hats off to Crackedcactus Irredeemables who ran the table and picked a correct team every single week for 16 straight weeks. Is he (she?) a savant? I don’t know, but I would sign up for their newsletter.
And hats off to Jeff, who finished second and lasted a full two weeks long than anyone else.
Over in pick ‘ems, there’s only about nine of us still mathematically alive for the title, but that’s only by wild numbers like picking all 16 games right this week while the leaders take goose eggs. Realistically Macksmith, MonstersoftheMidway and danferindustries are vying for the title. Last week’s high scorer was Blazing Picks.
Moving on, the Bears are favorites this week for just the fourth time this season. Yikes.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bears are 5.5-point home favorites over the Giants.
This is a precarious spot for the Bears to be in, because they’ve only been favored three other times this year; in week two to the Bengals and both games against the Lions.
They won all three of those games outright, but went 2-1 against the number.
Are the Giants that bad to suggest that the Bears should be favored by more than three or 3.5?
I kind of doubt it. Unless Justin Fields plays.
That’s the wildcard in all this and what makes it tough to pick this game on Friday. Until Friday’s final injury report comes out, I’m not sure if Fields is going to play or not due to his ankle injury and if I have to back Andy Dalton to cover 5.5, even if it is against Jake Fromm and Mike Glennon, I’m not sure I’m willing to do that.
Going back to 2018, the Bears are 2-4 ATS as 4-point or more favorites and that includes 0-2 ATS against the Giants.
But the Giants have been abysmal on the road this year, they’re just 1-7 outright and on their current four game skid they’re 0-4 against the spread.
My gut keeps telling me to take the points and the Giants, but my heart is saying go with the Bears.
The number has come down from when it opened with the Bears -6, so there is money coming in on New York.
I think it’s going to be an ugly, close game. Unless Fields plays, then I might reserve the right to switch this pick. The total is low, at 37.
I will take the Giants +5.5 and the over. It seems too easy to say this game is going to play out with a low-scoring affair. The Bears just put up 25 points on the road in the snow, they could duplicate that and then would only need 13 points from the Giants.
My picks: Giants +5.5, over 37
My record: 7-8 ATS, 10-20 overall