FanPost

Ryan Pace Still Sucks

I was going to post some of this to the Den or another post, but instead I'm posting this catchy title here in the Fan Post section so that nobody has to read it unless they want to and if they do, they should know exactly what they're getting. My point isn't actually that Ryan Pace sucks but rather that I know saying "I'm not super happy about the draft" will read "Ryan Pace sucks and I irrationally hate him because I need to be right about him being bad" so might as well just get it out of the way.

I'm super excited about the Bears getting Justin Fields, but I'm not super happy about this draft overall, mainly because I place a high value on draft capital and the way Pace deals it away every year leaves me thinking it won't go well for the Bears. I give the 2021 draft a C for now, and I'm only giving it that high a grade because I really like the players involved. I'm surprised the draft analysts are saying such nice things about it, but it doesn't change my opinion. I don't think over-paying to move up to draft Justin Fields was the right thing to do so much as I think the Bears had to do it. They sort of painted themselves into a corner and I'm in full support as this was the only viable path out, but I don't think it's a great move by any means, to trade up so much to take the QB4 in a draft -- people are acting like we got the QB2, and maybe we did, but that's not what Fields is right now. Now, if he turns out to be a franchise QB then I'll change my grade and I'll be happy to do it, but as fans we react in the moment as well as with hindsight.

So let me state that there are things I really like about this draft. Pace absolutely nailed the positional value here -- high up for a QB, and high in the 2nd for an OT -- bingo. He should have been building the OL all along with high value picks like this -- over 6 years, Whitehair and Daniels isn't enough investment. Also, we needed a QB and the only way to get one is to be bad, intentionally or otherwise, or to trade up. I'm ok with trading up for a potential franchise QB, even the QB4. It's quite likely that there is no prospect in 2022 as good as Justin Fields. If Teven Jenkins is truly a LT this could be a home run of a draft, but even if he's just a Cody Whitehair who plays RT -- a steady player who occasionally makes a Pro Bowl -- I'll take that. I also love the draft's focus on offense. You bet on a QB, then you have to do everything you can to help him succeed. Investing in weapons or protection for Fields should be the top priority every year from now on, IMO.

So the reason for this post is about draft strategy. Strategy isn't about one or two moves, it's about stacking moves on top of moves. Since this is where I focus my attention, the way these moves stack really bothers me. I think Pace's trading away of draft capital is going to catch up to us. 1410 Museum had a recent post showing that Pace is "only" -1 on draft picks during his first 6 years when including comp picks (I don't think it included 2021 comp picks). After digging into those numbers, however, we're actually at -7 vs. the average team: -4 due to comp picks, some of which is Pace's fault and some of which isn't, but having only 2 comp picks when other teams average 6, is a disadvantage. Then, instead of taking steps to mitigate the disadvantage, Pace has actually exacerbated it by going -3 in trades before 2021 -- these aren't late round picks either, this includes a first rounder for Mack and some mid-round picks.

So going into this draft, I think it made a lot of sense to try to trade down and recoup some of those picks. Instead, I believe the Bears gave up 3 extra picks to take Justin Fields, taking us from -7 picks in 6 years, to -10 in 7 years! That's ok, that's ok... they had to get a QB, I said so before the draft that I was fine with trading up for Fields. But you see how all of this stacks. You accumulate picks specifically so you can make a move like trading up to take Fields. But when you're already at a disadvantage, you're just digging the hole deeper. That's ok, I thought, they can trade down with their second pick and recoup some picks -- like a 3 this year and a 3 next year or something. Instead they trade another pick for Teven Jenkins? He's a good player but there were other good OTs on the board, and I'll bet you at least one of them ends up working out. They did recover a pick with a later trade but still ended this draft -3 because of Fields.

This "we don't need a bunch of picks, we just need one or 2 really good players" is what I call the "fantasy lineup" approach -- it's top heavy and lacking depth. It relies on those players not only being good, but staying healthy, and there isn't much room for error or injury. By contrast, I like the way the Browns stacked draft capital and built up a deep team on both sides of the ball, and have therefore been able to surround Baker Mayfield with talent and succeed even if their highly-drafted QB is just average-ish.

Meanwhile, the Bears are now -10 draft picks over 7 years vs. the average team. It's a disadvantage that is tough to overcome, when the other teams have 1 or 2 picks per year more than you do. It's how you end up relying on UDFAs like Mustipher and Bars to get you through the season -- not that they're terrible, but then they're outmatched against guys drafted in rounds 1-3, and the knuckleheads here say the GM brought in enough talent and blame the coaching staff for not getting more out of the talent, dazzling you with tales of how Bars would have been a mid-round pick were it not for injuries and the Patriots tried to poach him off our practice squad -- as if this somehow means Bars isn't in fact a UDFA that literally every team multiple times, an average of 8 times (including comp picks), and cannot compete with guys taken Rounds 1-3.

I know this is crazy, but what if Fields isn't a superstar, but is instead a good QB, but one who needs good protection and good targets to be really effective? I mean, I'd take that, and I'd probably give this draft at least a B+ if he is that. But, Pace is constantly, yearly, reducing the resources available to address the protection, the targets, the defense and the special teams. We essentially had a 1-player draft class in 2019 (if Duke Shelley is a legit starting NB I'll change my mind) and now we just had a 2-player draft class -- were we really just 2 players away last year?

It will all get blown over if Fields delivers but it's tough to build a complete team that way. You have to be really, really good at scouting.

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.