Love it or hate it, advanced stats and analytics is here to stay and Pro Football Focus has one out today that you’re going to want support, at least as it relates to the Bears.
See, they ran their completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and said that Justin Fields is the most accurate passer they’ve had in their time running stats on college QBs (2014).
Please be sure to click over to the PFF article because they have the charts and explanations of how the stat works and why it’s translatable and why it matters.
I can just tell you what they said here:
Another advantage of CPOE is that it’s slightly more predictive of NFL performance than other, more straightforward metrics.
...it’s pretty clear that Bears fans should be thrilled about the team landing Justin Fields with the No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Not only was he more accurate in college than his Ohio State predecessor, the often-compared Dwayne Haskins, and his Bears predecessor, Mitchell Trubisky, he was actually the most accurate quarterback in the PFF College era (2014-present)
As if Bears fans weren’t excited enough about the selection of Fields, having some stats that back up that his game could translate to the NFL is just as exciting. There’s obviously always a risk with draft picks and no player is a sure thing, but it’s promising that an analytics metric like this, which has been successful in the past, is on Chicago’s side here.
Lastly, I’ll include this paragraph from the article, which mentions that Fields recorded the highest CPOE ever against one of the toughest schedules PFF College has ever seen:
The Draft Network’s Benjamin Solak noted that “Fields faced the toughest schedule of all CFB defenses by SP+’s metrics, including his four final games (Indiana, Northwestern, Clemson, Alabama) against top-15 defenses. No FBS quarterback drafted in the last 10 years has had a more difficult defensive schedule than Fields.”