Another season is here and more and more states now have legalized sports betting, so maybe there’s a few new casual sports bettors out there joining us for the first time.
Or you’re a returning degenerate... Anyways, always bet responsibly and remember we’re all just here to have fun and not we’re not giving any actual professional advice.
It appears I’m flying solo on the picks this year, so I’ll give you my take on the Bears game each week and let you know who I’m picking in the Windy City Gridiron Survivor Pool, as well as weekly updates on our Pigskin Pick ‘Ems contest.
Last season I was 12-5 against the spread and 19-15 combined with the spread and total. That should give you a baseline of how to follow my picks each week.
Without further ado, let’s kick off week one
I don’t think it’s any secret that the Bears are underdogs in this game and for valid reasons.
The Bears finished last season 8-10 against the spread and were 7-7 as underdogs including the playoffs.
That’s quite middling but it gets worse when you look at their road record: just 2-4 against the spread in their last six, according to Oddshark.
The Rams, on the other hand, are 5-1 ATS in their last six week one games.
Put all that together and I just don’t see how the Bears can cover this one. The hook is enticing, but I just don’t think the Bears can be trusted in this spot.
I’ll also take the under; the under has hit in each of the last three meetings between these two and in six of their last eight meetings. Furthermore, Oddshark reports that under has come in on the Rams’ last eight home games and 11 of their last 15 games. Those are some big trends.
In the survivor pool, I’m taking the San Francisco 49ers over the Detroit Lions. Yes, it’s a west coast team coming to the central time zone early but the Lions, despite having a sound-bite filled coach, just don’t have a lot of pieces and while Kyle Shanahan is one of the best coach’s in the league, I’m not sure how often I am going to feel super confident picking them week in and week out, so it seems like a good week to knock them out.
Picks: Rams -7.5, under 46.5, 49ers (survivor)