Well ... woof. Not exactly what we were hoping for, but potentially what a lot of folks were expecting deep down with the way our secondary is structured and the recently facial-haired red rifle under center. So, while there is a lot of not so great from this game, there is something that is absolutely wonderful from a fantasy football perspective.
My thoughts on Allen Robinson have been very set in stone after what I have seen from the 27 year old for the past few years in a bears uniform. He has consistently been fantasy relevant, posting WR8 and WR10 (8th and 10th ranked wide-receiver) in PPR (points-per-reception) formats in 2019 and 2020, respectively) even when his quarterbacks have consisted of Mitch Trubisky, Chase Daniel, and Nick Foles. No disrespect to those quarterbacks, but they aren't exactly guys you're going to pick to drive you the length of the field in 45 seconds (see infinity year old Tom Brady). Robinson is a receiver who gets himself open really no matter what, and has done it through some harsh circumstances.
When it comes to fantasy football, and especially receivers, the best thing that you can do for your team is adding/finding players that will see VOLUME. This has become a buzzword in the fantasy community because of how much it is talked about, but it is talked about so much because of its truth. This is why one of my biggest sleepers this year is Corey Davis. He was paid in the offseason to be a #1 receiver in an offense that really doesn't have THAT many other places to go with the ball. So, even when the jets are losing games, he is going to see the ball which will always provide some level of stability in fantasy football (see 7 targets for 5 receptions, 87 yards, and 2 TDs week 1, for 26.7 PPR points ... in my flex). Even in a week that saw Zach Wilson struggle against a solid Carolina defense, Corey still got his, and my team got its points. Volume in fantasy football will produce results over the long term of a season, and does away with the horrible feeling of seeing 1.5 points from a 1 reception on a screen kind of performance.
BUT, this is not an article about Corey Davis, it is an article about Allen Robinson, and why you should see his current price as a MASSIVE discount on what his value really is. Right now, people see that Arob had 6 receptions for 35 yards and a pretty pedestrian (especially for his standards) 10.5 points. Its week 1 and people are going to be hitting the panic button on their teams if things didn't go how they had planned. It is going to happen. So for managers that drafted Allen Robinson as a starter or even WR1? Many will be looking to sell. And from the look of week 1, the price will be driven down from what Arob will produce this year. But what I saw was 11 targets. I saw a few pass interferences that weren't called which was very unfortunate. In this offense, there will be lots of featuring of Allen Robinson and he will certainly get a lot of touches, and most importantly, the Bears will not be playing 2020s #1 defense with the league's #1 corner every week.
Still not sold on Allen? Fair enough. Here are a few more numbers:
- 4th in Yards over the past 2 seasons, 1 of 3 players with four 150+ target seasons in a row
- In 2020, Allen Robinson accounted for 23.6% of the #Bears total yards, more than all other WR’s besides Stefon Diggs (24.2%).
- He accounted for 34.2% of the Bears net passing yards, more than all other WR’s except for DeAndre Hopkins (35.9%) and Justin Jefferson (34.9%) in 2020, not to mention 33% of the Bears passing yards in 2019.
- 2nd in the league with 39 redzone targets in 2019/20 combined
- Currently has played with the following QBs: Matt McGloin Christian Hackenburg, Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Nick Foles, Andy Dalton
This should paint the picture that as a receiver, Robinson is in very good company. If you took the top 3 PPR receivers from 2020 and listed them as their quarterback the list would read: 1. Aaron Rodgers, 2. Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes (Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill, Respectively). Rodgers won the MVP, and both Allen and Mahomes were in the running with Mahomes taking his team to the Super Bowl. So its pretty clear that QB play and Fantasy relevance as a receiver and pretty related, yes?
"So you're making the case that Dalton is going to break out and hit his Cincinnati, pro-bowl stride again?
No. But it is a sad potential truth that Andy Dalton in his current, slightly washed-up and definitely past his prime form is one of if not the best quarterback that Arob has caught footballs from. But isn't there a different quarterback on the Bears' roster not named Dalton or Foles? Why yes there is. And while Robinson will probably eclipse his week one performance for the following weeks of the year simply based of the fact that he won't be running routes against Jalen Ramsey, I believe that once Justin takes the Field(s) Robinson can bump into top 7-8 territory as a Fantasy option. Justin commands the field well and is willing to throw the ball downfield, but as a rookie, he WILL rely on his #1 to just get open, something that Robinson has never had an issue of doing.
Look at your team's assets. Did you have someone who blew up in week 1 that you 100% did not expect? Did that one guy that you believed in boom when everyone else thought he would bust? Use the variance and small sample size of week 1 to trade for receiver who's value is at a HUGE discount using someone who looks way shinier than they should right now. Allen is going to be great for the Bears this year in the same way that he has been since signing (ahem Pace please extend him) and he could do the same for your Fantasy Team. Consistency in Fantasy Football is at a Premium and lets you play a boom/bust type of player in your Flex. Allen will be that consistency in a wide receiver spot. Don't get caught up in the highs and lows of week 1 and go out and get this man, especially if you are in a league with non Bears fans. Allen will have the targets and volume to sustain high levels of production each week and the offense should only get better as the Rifle gives way to Justin Fields.
Go out and get this man before everyone else values him where they should.