One week in and the betting world has already been crazy. Expect nothing less in the world of NFL betting and that’s why we always say “for entertainment purposes only.” No one is getting rich off of this, we’re just here for a good time.
And week one provided a good time for all, unless you’re a Bears fan. I was able to cash my pick of Rams -7.5 but that doesn’t make me happy to see my team lose, although I’d be lying if I said chasing a winning ticket didn’t lighten the sting a little.
The over beat me though, but as I put in the column, my record last year picking the total meant you should probably fade that anyway.
Over in the WCG Pick ‘Ems league, I am tied for second-to-last with six points. I am a little thrown off that we’re picking games straight up this year, against the typical spread, but I will continue to press on.
Kudos should go to Daniwah’s pickle jar and MonstersoftheMidway who nailed 12 of the 16 games. My former column partner Jeff, is down with me with six as well so we’ll try to bounce back.
Over in the survivor league, we’re starting over. Due to a setup error it was defaulted to one strike and you’re out and that’s not very fun for a season-long thing, so we’re starting over in week two with a three strikes rule. I will say though that my column pick (SF) hit, although I did end up changing my official pick to the Rams, which also hit.
Let’s look at the Bears game now.
Looking at this game and last week’s game for each team and I can understand why the line is set the way it is.
It opened with the Bears as four point favorites and the line coming down says that there’s been a lot of money bet on the Bengals’ side.
There are some things to keep in mind here, while the Bengals are 1-14-1 straight up on the road over the last two years, Joe Burrow is 7-2-1 against the spread as a road underdog in the 10 games he’s finished as a starter, according to Joe Osborne on Twitter.
This stat might play in to why the line as moved so much and people seem to be hammering Cincinnati.
With the playmakers that the Bengals have and their ability to score, I would be concerned taking the under, just from what we’ve seen from the Bears so far. Granted, this isn’t the Rams’ offense, but this is a team that can put up point and I also think that the Bears will be able to score as well, especially against a Bengals defense that gave up a lot of big pass plays to Minnesota a week ago that allowed them to get back in the game.
Do I think the Bears can cover a field goal? I do, but I think I am still going to take the Bengals in this one and risk regretting it later.
In the survivor league, there’s a lot of intriguing games out there, but I am going with Cleveland here. They are coming off a tough loss to face the Texans at home, while the Texans are coming off a big win. The Browns are a good team and are going to want to get on the winning side.
With that said though, I always reserve the right to get scared and change my mind later.
My picks: Bengals +2.5, over 45, Browns (survivor)
2021 record: 1-0 ATS, 1-1 total, 0 strikes in survivor