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Visualize this: Matt Nagy’s Yardage Problem

We take a look at a simple chart of offensive production

Chicago Bears v Tennessee Titans Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

This week’s chart is simple. I wanted to know what it would look like if we plotted Nagy’s Chicago Bears offensive performances on a 2 by 2 chart. Admittedly, I’m a real sucker for a simplistic approach when I can use it. I plotted Nagy’s 51 games on the 2 x 2 matrix with passing yards on the x-axis and rushing yards on the y-axis. Note that passing yards take into account lost yardage from sacks, which is how you get the debacle from Sunday.

Here’s what it looks like:

A simple 2 x 2 matrix showing Chicago Bears offensive yardage under Matt Nagy

The matrix connects in the center at a perfectly average offensive game from 2020 using league-wide statistics: 120 yards rushing and 240 yards passing. The upper right quadrant represents games where the offense gained more yards than that league-average number for both rushing and passing. The bottom left quadrant is the opposite. The upper left shows below average passing but above average rushing and the lower right shows the opposite.

Nagy’s offenses surpassed the average rushing total in 23/51 games or slightly below half. Not good, but not a disaster. Nagy’s passing games surpassed the average a mere 15/51 games. Woof.

The imbalance between the good games (both rushing and passing over the average) and bad games (both under the average) comes out at eight to twenty. Twenty! Nearly forty percent of games that Nagy has been the head coach, he has failed to get the rushing or the passing offense above the average mark.

I don’t know exactly what I expected when I started to put the numbers up but I honestly wouldn’t have bet the lower left quadrant to be at almost 40% of the pool.

I promise next week I’ll pursue a more fun topic.

Is there something you would like to see in this space? Let me know in the comments below of find me on Twitter @gridironborn.