It’s a short week, so I’m coming to you on a Thursday ahead of tonight’s tilt between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders.
A short week is rough for the players, but it’s a good chance to wash the bad taste of Sunday’s loss out of their mouths.
And at least it’s a home game for the Bears, so the added hassle of travel isn’t added on top of the condensed week.
The Bears haven’t had a great record against Washington since the ‘80s, but we’ll get into all that. First, let’s check in on the WCG contests.
In the survivor pool, we saw four more people drop out with picks. Two had the Jaguars against the lowly Texans, one had Detroit against and one person trusted the Green Bay Packers against the Giants.
Anyway, five others also took a second strike, also on either the Jags or the Packers. Don’t trust the Packers, people!
Over in the pick ‘ems, after gaining ground, I tumbled back down with a seven-point week. But Bill Swerski’s Superfans jumped up to tie for first with Eberflus at 53 points. Bears Force One and our own WCG Hypeman are nipping at their heels.
Shoutout to MyBal Zich (good one), who was the week’s high-scorer.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders (-1, O/U 38)
The game opened at Bears -1 and has hovered around there or bounced to a pick.
Honestly, opening my app for the first time tonight and seeing +1 next to Chicago surprised me a bit.
But, not when it comes to the recent history of this match up.
The Bears are 4-13 straight up against Washington since 1985 in the regular season. And they’re 5-12 against the spread against Washington in that same time frame.
They are 1-6 at home against the Commanders and 0-7 against the number in those same games.
That is a historically bad stretch against one franchise, especially one that throughout most of that time, has been just as bad as you.
Chicago last beat Washington in Chicago in 2003. It was Rex Grossman’s second career start.
Washington is 1-4 against the spread this year, as well a straight up. They covered in week one as a favorite but haven’t been favored since.
The Bears are undefeated at home so far this season and Washington is still looking for its first road win.
These are two very evenly-matched bad teams. That’s what the paper match up says. The defensive DVOAs are similar, their points per game is similar, their redzone scoring is the same...you get it.
Hat tip to Jeremy Layton on Twitter for those stats, btw.
the Bears and Commanders— Jeremy Layton (@JeremyLayt0n) October 12, 2022
- average the same number of red zone scoring attempts per game (2.4) and convert the exact same percentage into TDs (58.3%)
- have almost identical defensive DVOA ratings (CHI 18th w/ 4.1%, WAS 19th at 4.2%)
- both allow 5.6 yards per play to opponents
So it’s going to be one of those games.
But I think the Soldier Field faithful and the fact that Washington’s turnover differential is second-worst in the NFL are factors in Chicago’s favor.
Whether your app has the Bears -1, a pick or +1, I’m taking the Bears. And, even though my record on Bears totals is abysmal (18 percent correct going back to the beginning of last season), I’ll take the over.
If nothing else, it gives us an excuse to hope for an entertaining Thursday night game.
As for survivor, I’m taking the Rams this week. I know, they’ve been very bad, but they get a Carolina squad fresh off firing their coach and I just don’t think the Panthers have a “We’re so glad the old guy is gone” win in them. Plus, when are you ever going to feel good about using the Rams again?
Get right, Los Angeles.
My picks: Bears +1, over 38, Rams (survivor)
Season record: 4-6 overall, 3-2 ATS