This seems like a spot to fade the Bears.
Chicago is coming off a big, upset Monday Night Football win, going on the road again, against a very good defense.
Plus, doesn’t it just feel like the Bears are always going one step forward, two steps back (see their games against Minnesota and then Washington for evidence).
We’ll get more into it. First, let’s peek at the pools.
In the survivor pool, we’re down to 12 active players and we’re only just now nearing the halfway point. We also have just one contestant with only one strike, so hats off to Risky Biscuit.
Last week two were eliminated, both chose Tampa Bay, and three others took a strike, two with Tampa and one with Green Bay.
Over in the pigskin pick ‘ems, Bill Swerski’s Superfans remain the leader with 72 points. Eberflus is just behind with 71. Must Be Trippin was the high-scorer for the second-consecutive week.
I’m down in 21st with 61 points.
Now, on to the Cowboys game.
On paper, it looks like the Bears are overmatched, right? The Cowboys are 5-2 and have a dominant defense.
But upon closer inspection, these teams aren’t terribly far apart in some respects.
They both average close to the same number of points (19.1 for Dallas, 18 for Chicago), and they are the third (CHI) and fourth pass defenses (DAL). They’re seventh (CHI) and second in points allowed. They’re 27th (DAL) and 32nd (CHI) in pass yards per game. Both teams struggle against the run (DAL is 20th in rush yards allowed, Bears are 27th).
Sure, Dak has played only one complete game, so some of those stats could be skewed, but there are things here that work in the Bears’ favor or are closer than they may first appear.
With that said though, we know that the Bears’ OL is their weak link, while the Cowboys have one of the best defensive lines in the league and have the best pass rusher in the league in Micah Parsons.
Look, I listen to a podcast with professional bettors, I’ve heard and get the argument for laying the points, but 10 is just way too many.
The Cowboys couldn’t put the Detroit Lions away last week until the fourth quarter and even then, it was 10-6 until there were less than three minutes left. Both of Dallas’s late touchdowns were set up by late turnovers from Detroit.
Can the Bears take care of the football and keep it close against an opponent that seems like they’re on the cusp of breaking out?
I do, actually. I don’t know if it will be pretty. I don’t know if it will be close or if I’m going for a backdoor cover, but 10 or 10.5 (depending on the book), is just too many for me.
The Cowboys' offense hasn’t been explosive, with or without Dak. Both of these defenses struggle against the run and can run the ball themselves. That will shorten the game in a way and I think that plays in Chicago’s favor.
So I’m taking Chicago and the under.
For survivor, I’m taking the Dolphins. I can see the argument for taking the Cowboys, and maybe I’ll end up switching, but I just think that even if the Lions keep it close at home against Miami, the Dolphins should still pull off a win.
My picks: Bears +10, under 42.5, Dolphins (survivor)
Record: 5-9 overall, 4-3 ATS, 1 strike in survivor
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