The 17 game season means that fans and analysts can no longer neatly divide the season into quarters like we used to, but we’re now a month into the season and that means trends are developing.
This season has been tough for gamblers because, well, there’s a lot of parity in the league and a lot of teams playing very bad football.
15 teams are 2-2 (or 2-2-1 if you’re the Colts) and there’s only one undefeated and one team without a win.
This is manifesting itself in the survivor pool, where we began with 77 players and we’re down to 36. There are only six people with have yet to take a strike.
Last week, six more were eliminated who made picks, almost all were on the Lions but one person was on the Rams and another couple on Pittsburgh.
Over in the pick ‘ems pool, yours truly has jumped up to third place with 39 points following a 12-point week. I’m tied with Wolfepack and Bear Force One.
We’re still trailing Bill Swerski’s Superfans (42) and Eberflus (43). Eberflus turned in a league-high 13 points last week.
Let’s turn our attention to the Bears now, who face a big road test against a good offense.
The Vikings opened as a 7-point favorite but now, a little less than 24 hours out, are up to a 7.5-point favorite, which suggests that the money is on the Vikings side.
In fact, according to the Action Network, 69 percent of the money (nice) is on Minnesota.
The Bears are 1-3 against the spread on the season and 1-2 as underdogs.
If you look at the rankings, this is a favorable match up for the Bears offense, but how on earth can you trust that unit with what we’ve seen through four games?
And it’s worse on the defensive side for Chicago as the Vikings have one of the best receivers in the league and the Bears are down their top corner.
Overall, it’s hard for me to pick the Bears here. Kirk Cousins is simply a different quarterback at home at noon.
The Vikings haven’t seen the best out of Dalvin Cook yet this year but this is the week for them to turn it around against a historically bad Bears rush defense.
Maybe the Bears get a late cover, it does feel like Eddie Jackson will get a pick off of Cousins, but overall I just have a feeling this one is going to have us shaking our heads a lot.
I’ll lay the 7.5 with Minnesota but I will take the under. The under is 3-1 for the Bears this year, mostly due to their anemic offense.
In survivor, I’m stuck between the Bills against the Steelers with a rookie QB and Tampa at home against the Falcons. It feels like a get-right spot for Tampa, so I have them locked in right now.
My picks: Vikings -7.5, under 44, Tampa Bay (survivor)
2022 record: 4-4 overall, 3-1 ATS
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