The Bears haven’t been favored in many games this season.
They were favored in week three against the Texans and, briefly, against the Commanders, but I had that game closing at Washington -1 or a pick ‘em, depending on the book.
But the Lions aren’t a great team, so seeing Chicago as home favorites isn’t a shock. But the Bears are only favored by three points, which is the typical “home field advantage” line, so it’s not like the oddsmakers love the Bears.
Before we get further though, let’s check in on the WCG contests.
Over in the pick ‘ems league, Bill Swerski’s Superfans is still leading the pack, turning in 10-point weeks. Last week’s high-scorer was BurntMule with 11 points and tiebreakers.
In survivor, I took another strike, which I deserve for trusting the team up north. We’re down to just ten active players. Two were eliminated last week picking Buffalo and Robert and I took strikes, he was also on Buffalo.
Let’s get to the game and picks this week.
Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Detroit Lions (O/U 48.5)
These are two bad defenses and I mean bad. They are the bottom two in rush defense. They’re both bottom seven in defensive DVOA. Although Detroit has the edge over Chicago there, coming 26th to Chicago’s 31st.
Either way, do not expect much of a defensive battle on Sunday.
So then, it comes down to which offense has the edge?
Lately, it’s been Chicago, of course, but I think it goes even further than that.
Under Dan Campbell, the Lions have yet to win an outdoor game. The Lions’ offense is vastly different indoors and outdoors.
Their home and road splits are also bad.
On the road this year they’ve scored 30 points, total, with 24 of those coming against the Vikings (indoors). The Lions were shutout against the New England. This is only their third road game, though, so the sample size is smaller, too.
But since the beginning of 2021, when Campbell was hired, the Lions are 0-8-1 straight up on the road. They’re 2-5 ATS outdoors in those games.
We expect the Bears offense to be just fine, but the Lions should be able to move the ball, especially with D’Andre Swift being fully healthy for the first time since early in the year.
With all that said, knowing the trend of the Lions outside and on the road, I’m laying the points with the Bears. I think the Lions could keep it close, but overall I feel like this is a game that the new-look Bears offense can really take over.
I’m also rolling with the over because, again, we’ve seen the Bears struggle to stop anyone.
For the survivor, I’m going with the Cowboys over the Packers. Green Bay screwed me last week and I just don’t see how, with their offensive struggles, they’re going to score against the Cowboys’ defense.
If I change my mind, the Chiefs and Eagles are two teams I’d look at, but I’m trying to save the cream of the crop for as late in the year as I can.
My picks: Bears -3, over 48.5, Cowboys (survivor)
2022 record: 7-11, 5-4 ATS
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