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Betting the Bears against the New York Jets

A QB change hasn’t changed the line, is that a sign?

Buffalo Bills v New York Jets Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

I missed last week’s column, not sure how, but I did.

In full transparency, I had the Bears +3 and took the push. I hope you grabbed it at three, too, but I screwed myself by taking it down to +2.5 at a couple of books.

Anyway, over in survivor, we’re down to seven players. Last week we had two eliminated, both took the Giants against the Lions. The only one who took a strike last week also took the Giants.

Everyone has at least one strike and only two have only one strike. So it’s getting down to it.

In the pick ‘ems, Eberflus and Bill Swerski’s Superfans are all knotted up at the top with 106 points. The high scorer last week was Bear Force One.

Now let’s turn back to the main attraction. The Bears, who hit the road for a second consecutive week to face the Jets.

The Jets have had a tumultuous week of headlines and a quarterback change. They’re starting Mike White, who is starting just his fourth career game.

The Bears have a quarterback question, but this time it’s “how healthy is he?” Justin Fields says he will start, but admitted he’s dealing with pain. What can they get from him?

Chicago Bears at New York Jets (-6, O/U 38.5)

This line strikes me as relatively high. But what really worries me is the fact that it hasn’t budged since Mike White was named the starter.

The line opened at Jets -3.5 or -4.5 and is now up to six, which tells you where the money is going (it ain’t on Chicago).

The numbers back this up: the Jets, for as bad as their offense has been is still 5-2 ATS in their last seven, which the Bears are 2-4 in their last six.

The Bears are 1-5 on the road, only picking up a win against the Patriots, when they were eight-point underdogs.

They are 2-3-1 against the spread on the road this year and are 2-2 when underdogs of six or more points (ATS win against the Patriots and Vikings, losses to the Cowboys and Packers).

I think if it weren’t for this column, I would have this as a stay-away game. As it is, I think I have to lean Jets.

Six is a lot of points, but the Bears defense hasn’t stopped anyone over the last month. With star DBs Jaquon Brisker and Jaylon Johnson in concussion protocol, I don’t trust the defense to stop Garrett WIlson and Cory Davis.

Justin Fields, as we know, is going to have to be superman, against a defense that is well-equipped to stop a running quarterback and/or get help from a supporting cast that has too often come up short this season.

As for the total, 38.5 is the lowest for a Bears game since the Commanders game in week six.

The Bears haven’t had a game hit the under since that game. The Jets haven’t played in a game with more than 39 points since week 5.

That said, I lean the over in this. The Bears defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed, so I don’t think Mike White will have much trouble putting up at least a couple of scores.

I’m not sure there are any readers out there left making survivor picks, but if I were still alive I’d go with Seattle over the Raiders because the Raiders are crap. Otherwise, look at Miami against the Texans or low-key the Bucs against the Browns in their final game without Desean Watson.

My picks: Jets -6, over 38.5

2022 record: 9-12-1 overall, 6-5 ATS

Join us Sunday morning at 10 a.m. on our 2nd City Gridiron YouTube channel for The Gambler’s Den, where Jeff Berckes, Ross Read, and Erik Smith, talk prop bets, make game picks, and go over fantasy football decisions too.