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Betting the Bears vs. the Dolphins

The Bears are home underdogs but have found some offense, can they hang with Miami?

NFL: OCT 30 Dolphins at Lions Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Can the Bears win a shootout?

This is legitimately and without a hint of sarcasm that Bears fans are asking themselves and each other in the year 2022.

For once, it seems that the Bears have found some offense, as their defense falls apart.

The Bears scored 29 points last week on a very good Dallas defense and were aided by a short field from the defense only once (and they had to settle for 3).

The downside is that they lost by 20.

But it sets up the question asked in the first place. The Bears may be in a position in the second half of the season, where they need to win a game by outscoring the opponent. They might need to win a game with 35 or 38 points.

We’ll break down this match up more, but first let’s take a look at the WCG contests.

In survivor, we lost no one for the first time this season. Two players took strikes, one on Arizona and one because they didn’t lock in a pick.

Everyone in survivor has at least one strike now.

In pick ‘ems, Bill Swerski’s Superfans remain atop the leaderboard with 82 points. BearFromSD was the weekly winner with a stunning 13-point week.

Now let’s get to the main attraction.

Miami Dolphins (-4) vs. Chicago Bears (O/U 45.5)

The Bears do not have a lot of historical success against the Miami Dolphins. Granted, they haven’t played a ton either (this will be just the 14th meeting).

But there are some stats and trends that do work in their favor.

Following a loss of 20 or more points, in their next game that team is 66-48 against the spread.

A nearly 60 percent trend in their favor is pretty good.

Since 2011, the Bears are 2-11 as 4+ point home underdogs. But one of those two wins was week one, at home, against the 49ers.

The only other thing to keep in mind is the weather. It looks like most of the bad wind an rain is going to go through on Saturday, so it likely won’t be a factor, but keep tabs on it because you never know.

I actually feel like this is a good spot for the Bears. I picked them last week and was terribly wrong, but I kind of went against what I should have then. Miami is good, their offense is great, but they still don’t seem like a team that’s burying opponents.

Their largest margin of victory is 13 points, back in week one against the Patriots. They took until the fourth quarter to put away the Lions last week.

Plus, the match ups that worked against Chicago last week (the Cowboys run game vs. Bears run defense) actually works more in Chicago’s favor this week.

The Dolphins lack a great pass rush, hence why they traded for Bradley Chubb this week. They don’t have a strong running game, either. The Bears secondary is actually the strongest part of their defense, especially after trading away Roquan Smith.

Miami’s secondary isn’t great, either. So there are going to be favorable matchups for Chicago on both the defense and offense.

That said, I still don’t really think that the Bears can shutdown receivers as fast and as talented as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Those guys are going to get theirs.

With their newfound offensive success though, they might just be able to keep it tight.

I’m taking the Bears and the points and the over. I would’ve liked it a lot more at Bears +5, which is what it opened at, but the line movement tells me I’m on the right side.

For survivor, I’m risking it and taking the team up north. I feel like this is an easy-ish win for the Packers to “get right” for a week and feel OK about themselves. Detroit’s defense is abysmal. It will likely be a closer game than I would want it to be, but all I need is a win, not style points.

My picks: Bears +4, over 45.5, Packers (survivor)

Record: 5-11, 4-4 ATS, 1 strike

Join us every Sunday morning at 10 a.m. on our 2nd City Gridiron YouTube channel for The Gambler’s Den, where Jeff Berckes, Ross Read, and Erik Smith, talk prop bets, make game picks, and go over fantasy football decisions too.