I hope everyone enjoyed the bye week, but now it’s back to business.
The last four games of the season are going to be a slog for our Chicago Bears, but as bettors we need to dig deep and look for the value.
This week is going to be rough with the Bears being huge home underdogs to one of the best teams in the league.
But before we get to that, let’s look at the survivor and pick ‘em pools.
In survivor, we are down to just five with four games to go. Lester and Risky Biscuits still have just one strike each. We lost two last week (they picked Tennessee and Seattle).
In the pick ‘ems, Bill Swerski’s Superfans and Eberflus are still tied up on top. Overall, the group had a bad week across the board. Only two people managed to get 10 games correct, BearfromSD was the high scorer.
Now we turn our attention to game at hand.
Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) at Chicago Bears (O/U 48.5)
This is yet another week of “can the Bears cover as a huge underdog?”
This has been a recurring theme this season. It isn’t surprising either, since the Bears are 3-10, have lost six straight, and haven’t won since October.
Chicago has been eight point or more underdogs three other times this season. They have covered only one of those games (coincidently their last win, as 8-point underdogs to the Patriots on the road). They lost to both the Packers in week two and to the Cowboys as 10-point underdogs. They failed to cover as well.
How you bet this game really is going to come down to how you feel it will play out. Can the Bears get a backdoor cover or can they somehow hang with the Eagles?
I have a hard time seeing the Bears being able to keep this one close. The defense has been abysmal and even with Jaquon Brisker and Kyler Gordon coming back, that just doesn’t feel like enough reinforcements.
The Bears managed to score on the Cowboys’ defense and move the ball well, but even that wasn’t enough to cover 10 points.
But then again, they’re playing at home and have had the bye week to hopefully come up with some wrinkles for the offense and maybe some ideas for the defense as well.
The Bears are 3-3 ATS at home this season with covers coming against the 49ers (outright W), Dolphins, and Texans (outright W) and losses coming to the Commanders, Lions (as favorites), and Packers.
The spread has already dropped half a point from nine earlier in the week, suggesting that bettors are hitting the Bears.
Further, their four home losses have come with an average margin of just 4.5 points. The overall margin in all of their home games is five points. So the Bears do play closer at home.
For those reasons, I am taking the Bears and all of those points. I don’t feel great about it, but it just seems like the right side.
I’ll take the over, because, come on, the Bears always seem to end up over.
If you’re still alive in a survivor pool, you don’t need me, but I’d take the Chiefs. I try to hold all the really good teams to the end, so I would also look at Philly unless you’ve used them.
My picks: Bears +8.5, over 48.5, Chiefs (survivor)
2022 record: 12-12-1 overall, 7-5-1 ATS
Join us Sunday morning at 10 a.m. on our 2nd City Gridiron YouTube channel for The Gambler’s Den, where Jeff Berckes, Ross Read, and Erik Smith, talk prop bets, make game picks, and go over fantasy football decisions too.