The latest pack of Next Gen Stats from Zebra Sports are out, and even though the Chicago Bears lost last Sunday, there were still some interesting takeaways from their analytics. The future is looking bright for Chicago's offense, so if you have any Betway online sports betting on the horizon, might I suggest some Bears’ 2023 props surrounding the quarterback.
The first was about this fantastic touchdown run from Justin Fields.
Justin Fields reached a top speed of 20.15 mph on his 55-yard TD run, his 8th carry over 20 mph this season. Fields now has more 20+ mph carries in 2022 than any player has had in a season since 2018. He gained +52 RYOE on the play as well, most of any ball carrier in Week 13 and 19th most on a single play this season. Fields now has 3 of the top 20 RYOE figures on a single play this year, the most appearances in the top 20 of any player.
RYOE is rushing yards over expected, which is “the difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays.”
More on the specifics of that and other Next Gen Stats can be found at NFL.com.
He also set numerous season passing highs in Week 13 – 9.8 air yards/completion (2nd highest), 254 yards passing, and 11.7% CPOE (4th highest)
CPOE is completion percentage over expected, and “it measures how much higher (or lower) a QB’s completion percentage is relative to what we’d expect it to be based on the types of passes they attempted.”
There was also a lack of pass rush nugget that Zebra Sports shared, so since I don’t want to finish on a sour note, let’s get that out of the way here.
Aaron Rodgers took advantage of the Bears’ poor pass rush by taking an average of 3.36 seconds to throw (most of any QB this week). Despite this, and 9.9 average intended air yards, Rodgers only had an average of 4.9 completed air yards. His -5 average air yards differential was 2nd most this week.
The lack of completed air yards shows that Chicago’s back seven did a decent job, but with no pass rush, a good QB will just bide his time and take what the defense gives him.
Their last stat is about Chicago’s 23-year-old tight end.
Cole Kmet remains a big part of the Bears’ passing game, especially when Justin Fields starts. Kmet averaged 6.1 yards of separation on his targets which helped him catch 6 passes for 72 yards.
Kmet had an awful start to his 2022 season, but he’s settled in and has started to show a nice all-around skill set. In thirteen games, he has 35 receptions, 408 yards, and 5 TDs, after being completely shut out in weeks one and two.