I took a look at the last 5 drafts to determine the likelihood of the Bears trading back with either of their 2nd round picks. With 29 trades in the last 5 drafts that involved only 2nd round picks, that's nearly 6 per year. So the chances of trading back are quite good.
But what is the expected value of a trade? I used the Jimmy Johnson model to look at each trade in the 2nd round of the last 5 years to determine each trade value. A couple of quick points stood out to me:
- Teams value to JJ chart and stick closely to it.
- (13) trades were within 10 points of value.
- (20) trades were within 20 points of value.
- A future round draft pick is valued similarly to the final pick of that round. For example, a 2023 4th round pick would be viewed (roughly) with the same value as pick #143, this years current final pick in the 4th round.
- (27) trades were within 36 points of value - equivalent to pick 140.
There were really only 2 trades that were good hauls for the team trading down. Both of those happened in 2019.
- Panthers traded up to 37 with the Seahawks, giving up picks 47 & 77 - the best JJ chart trade value in 5 years in the second round. The Seahawks walked away 135 points richer.
- Saints jumping up to 48 & 116, giving the Dolphins 62, 202, and a 2020 2nd round pick. That gave the Dolphins an 83.6 point surplus.
A final couple of points that stood out....
- Only 3 times was a team able to trade a single second round pick for a later 2nd and a 3rd in the same draft - making about a 10% chance it will happen.
- Most common trade was a 2nd and a 4th for a drop down 2nd and a 3rd.
- Expect to drop 15-20 picks to pick up a 3rd in exchange. In 2018 the Raiders dropped from 41 to 57 and got pick 89 as compensation. However the Titans ended up +15 on the deal.
- Expect to get a 5th rounder to drop 1-5 spots. In 2019 the Bills were able to drop from 38 to 40 and get pick 158 as compensation.
- The Patriots were the most active with 6 trades in the last 5 years in round two alone.
- The Bears have traded 3 times in the second round over the last 5 years.
- The Cardinals turned to a QB needy Miami and scored big. They got pick 62 and a 2020 5th round pick for Josh Rosen. That's 304.8 points of value. Come on Poles, you can get SOMETHING for Foles!