True or False: Justin Fields will pass for over 3,838 yards in 2022

The Chicago Bears have the most pitiful passing records in the entire NFL. That’s not to take anything away from Erik Kramer’s fantastic 1995 when he set the Bears all-time record of 3,838 passing yards and 29 touchdown passes, but that was over 25 years ago. The NFL is a passing league, and every other team has caught on to that notion except the Bears.

Since Kramer threw for 3,838 yards in 1995, an NFL quarterback has eclipsed that number in a season 208 different times from 1996 to 2021.

As a first time offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has a lot to prove, but he comes from a talented coaching tree, and he has a quarterback in Justin Fields that should be a seamless fit for his offense. Fields has a lot to prove as well, so will the Getsy-Fields pairing bring out the best in each of them?

The 2022 version of the Bears is going to come out of the gate with an old school (run the ball and play good defense) mindset, but could this finally be the season Kramer’s record falls?

Today’s roundtable topic is...

True or False: Justin Fields will pass for over 3,838 yards in 2022

And here’s what we had to say...

FALSE

Robert Zeglinski - The Bears aren’t built to throw the ball, and I hardly expect them to try to do it often. Also, yes, it’s depressing that the Bears’ single-season passing record (barf) will probably still stand heading into 2023. That’s fine, though. Ask me this again in 2023. I’ll be far less cynical then.

Jack Salo - Let’s look at some of the people catching passes for quarterbacks who topped this stat in 2021 (cap at 4500 yards to save time): CeeDee Lamb + Amari Cooper (Prescott), Stefon Diggs + Emmanuel Sanders (Allen), Justin Jefferson + Adam Thielen (Cousins), Davante Adams + Davante Adams had 1500+ receiving yards (Packers), Kyle Pitts + Cordarelle Patterson (Ryan). These are all teams with multiple Pro Bowlers, past or present, on their roster, where the Bears have none. There are many things I can look for to say Justin Fields has progressed. Less turnovers, especially fumbles. Higher yards-per-pass. Better efficiency on play action. I won’t look for him to break a(n admittedly paltry) franchise record until they either sign or develop a receiver into one of the best in the league.

Jacob Infante - As much as I’d like to say true to this, doing so implies that Fields will play enough games to reach that mark - it’s always best to err on the side of caution with injuries - and that the Bears will pass the ball enough for him to reach that mark.

Sam Householder - I hate to be negative all the time, especially when it comes to the offense, but this is the Bears we’re talking about. I think Justin Fields could have a strong season and still come up short. I am going to be a year late discussing any potential franchise offensive player because I’ve spent more of the last 20 years of my life waiting, hoping and being disappointed. I have to actually see it to believe it.

Erik Christopher Duerrwaechter - Here’s a sad reminder that the Bears are, still, the only NFL team who don’t feature a 4,000+ yard passer in their 100+ year history. With the way their receiving corps is currently constructed, and the seismic shift in philosophies expected to change on offense, I don’t think Justin Fields will break the franchise record either. Realistically, I think he’ll pass for 3,600 yards and rush for an additional 500 on the ground. Luke Getsy isn’t introducing the pass happy offense people think is being brought to Chicago.

Aaron Leming - I’ll say false but not by much. Health is obviously a big piece of the equation but I see Fields coming in just short of that, right around 3,600 yards passing. The biggest reason? I see the Bears leaning on the run, especially early in the season. I think Fields’ future is bright but I think the measuring stick for him may be better used in his play versus his numbers. Especially when considering the lack of help he has around him.

Bill Zimmerman - You’d love for it to be true, and while plenty of Justin Fields’ struggles were Matt Nagy’s fault, he did have some growing pains as a passer. Last year, over 17 games, Fields would have had 2700 yards passing. For him to surpass this, he will have to be better by 70 yards a game. That’s a tall order for a 2^nd year QB in his 3^rd offense in 3 years with an offense this year that’s clearly going to be focused on running the football. I think a good number for Fields to aim for would be 3500 yards.

Peter Borkowski - I really, really, really want to say yes. But I have to say no. There are three main things I think prevent this from happening this season:

1.) It always takes a little time for QBs to learn a new system, so I don’t expect Fields to flawlessly run what Luke Getsy wants him to right from the get go. Maybe he falls into a groove eventually, but I think it’ll take time.

2.) Who is Fields throwing to? Darnell Mooney will probably be good for 1k yards like last season; but who else? Hopefully someone out of the Bryon Pringle, Velus Jones Jr., Dazz Newsome, Equanimeous St. Brown group breaks out, but I’m not counting on that.

3.) Is Fields really going to stay healthy long enough to get there with how low his yds/game is likely to be? This O-line still has major holes and as tough as Fields is, there’s only so much punishment a young QB can take, especially if his team should focus on protecting him for better, brighter seasons ahead.

Josh Sunderbruch - False...

TRUE

Patti Curl - False... Fields’ longest pass in 2022 will be a mere 80 yards to Tristan Ebner on a wheel route. But all his passes combined will certainly add up to at least 5000 yards.

Rahul Ramachandran - Regardless of what the data and the analytics say, Justin Fields was incredibly impressive last year. He was just in an awful situation (league-average talent, the worst scheme in the NFL, injuries, etc.). With a new scheme and (hopefully) better injury luck, I think he’s going to break out and become a top 10 quarterback this year. With a year 2 leap, he will take full advantage of the talent around him, hence why I predict he will set the franchise single-season record for passing yards.

Lester A. Wiltfong Jr. - If he’s healthy he’ll get it. In his last three games that he started and finished he threw for 800 yards, an average of 266.7 yards per game in those three contests. With the new 17 game season in the NFL a QB only needs to throw for 225.8 yards a game to hit that magic Bears’ passing yard number of 3,839. Fields is now playing for a coaching staff that will allow him to get outside the pocket and utilize play action, two things that he thrived at a season ago.

Ken Mitchell - True...

Now it’s your turn.

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