Degenerates, it’s our favorite time of the year.
Let’s manifest the winning ways and good vibes. We’re going to win all of our bets this season and be successful.
But also, know your limits and don’t bet past your means.
The Chicago Bears open the season hosting the San Francisco 49ers. When the schedule was announced, this game appeared on paper as a mismatch for the Bears and the 49ers opened as 6.5 point favorites.
The line didn’t move much over the summer but in the last week or so it bumped up to seven.
It’s expected to be wet Sunday in Chicago, which could affect the scoring and how the teams play. And not to mention the playing surface of the newly laid sod.
Last season I went 7-10 picking the Bears ATS. So let’s be better this year. It’s going to be tough to handicap a team with a new, unknown coach and more, but we’ll work through this together.
Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers (-7, O/U 40.5)
The Bears are coming in with low expectations, and a new coach who appears to have the team playing more controlled, more disciplined and smarter.
While there is a small amount of unknown with Justin Fields, there’s a heck of a lot more with Trey Lance. Lance had very limited action last year and fewer starts.
What did we actually learn about Fields though? There were a few bright spots, but the offense was so broken and the supporting cast so bad, you can’t say that with certainty.
I did some research and have found that the Bears are 9-12-1 ATS since 2000 in week one. The last five new Bears coaches are 1-3-2 against the spread in their first games.
But Kyle Shanahan isn’t exactly a wizard in week one, either. His 49ers teams are 1-4 against the number and 2-3 outright.
Look, these aren’t big sample sizes, but it’s hard to get a read on these games early in the year, especially with a new coaching staff.
I can’t find the exact stat, but I remember hearing a sharp say that teams that lost 10 or more games the previous season and are a touchdown or more underdog have a very good record over the last decade plus.
Fox Sports notes that underdogs hit at a 53 percent rate against the spread in week one since 2000.
All of that is set up to say, I’m taking the Bears and the points. I think this team is going to play tough, I think Trey Lance might have some rough drives as he finds his footing and I believe the weather plays to the Bears’ favor.
I would play the under, even as low as it is.
For the survivor pool, I was looking at the Broncos, but I have decided to go with the Titans against the Giants. I believe I will want to save Denver for later and I don’t think I will like the Titans as much down the road.
Picks: Bears +7, under 40.5