Betting the Bears: Packers off a loss

The Bears and Packers face off for the 205th time tomorrow night.

I don’t want to spend a ton of time rehashing the awful turn for the beloved that this series has taken in the last thirty years because I think we all know it.

Lambeau hasn’t been any worse for the Bears than Soldier Field has, in terms of this series. The Bears notched two of their past three wins against the Packers at Lambeau.

Two of those wins also came at times of turmoil for the Packers. In 2018, the Bears won at Soldier Field over a Packers team that had 5 wins and an interim coach. Going back to 2013, they won after Shea McClellin broke Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone on the first drive of the game.

The only time in the last 10 years that the Bears beat the Packers at full strength was on Thanksgiving in 2015.

I’m not saying it can’t be done, I’m saying that history is not on their side. That’s all.

Before we get to the game, let’s check in on the WCG survivor and pick ‘ems groups.

I wasn’t the only one who took a strike in survivor, I was joined by 45 others. It appears many, many others of those took either Denver over Seattle, Indianapolis over the Texans or, like me, Tennessee over the New York Giants. There were a few I see that took Cincinnati over Pittsburgh and at least one person who picked Green Bay. A couple of others decided to roll with Baker and Panthers. Oops.

In the pick ‘ems, the leader is currently Lindemrm who has the tiebreaker lead with 12. Two others also notched 12 points, Bear Force One, and Bill Swerski’s Superfans.

As for me, I had nine points and I’m down in 48th. Good thing there’s still plenty of time.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10, O/U 41.5)

When I think about all of the ways the Bears can win this game, it involves the Bears playing perfectly and the Packers leaving plays on the field and making mis

takes like they did a week ago.

It would take a low-scoring affair with tough defense.

Never say never in the NFL, but this game is going to be difficult for the Bears.

Chicago has lost five in a row against the spread as underdogs to the Packers and six straight against the spread.

The Bears have lost their last two games outright and against the spread as underdogs of 10 points or more. Both of those games were last season against the Bucs (12 points) and Packers (12.5 points).

Matt LeFleur and Aaron Rodgers’ numbers together following a loss are insane too.

Rodgers is 20-7 against the spread vs. Chicago in his career. Packers are 11-0 against the number and outright following a loss. On Sunday Night Football, Rodgers has 23 TDs and 0 INT vs. the Bears in six games.

That’s a whole lot of trends going against the Bears. And part of me says “It’s silly to think that THIS is the year that the Bears start to change things.”

Eventually, I do believe that the Bears are going to change things. But I don’t know if this is the spot.

I do think the Bears will cover though. The Packers have a lot of issues right now but are still an overall better roster than the Bears. I think Chicago will keep it close, but ultimately this one ends in tears for Chicago.

For the total, give me the over. I just feel like the Bears’ offense is going to give it their best shot and I think that Rodgers and Co. will get theirs. The rain is no longer in the forecast, so give me over 41.5.

Looking at the Survivor pool, I took a week one strike on the Titans, which was a close game and, in retrospect, just not the pick. Now, I’m going with the Broncos against the Texans.

It’s an easy bounce-back spot for Denver and it’s important to not overreact to week one. The Broncos are a good team.

My picks: Bears +10, over 41.5, Broncos (survivor)

2022 record: 2-0 (1-0 ATS)