The Denver Broncos head into Kansas City as only 10.5 point underdogs to the Chiefs despite the fact that this Broncos defense is the worst by defensive DVOA since the stat started. It’s really bad. They have given up at least 28 points in each of their last four games, including 70 to the Dolphins. The Chiefs field a pretty decent offense that has seemingly found its groove in recent weeks. Good offense vs bad defense equals points. Give me the over.
As for the game itself, can Russell Wilson and Sean Payton figure out a way to keep it close enough for Al Michaels to not fall asleep during the telecast? Unclear. (I wonder if there’s a prop bet for Al falling asleep...)
I say don’t overthink this one. Take the defending SB champs, at home, to comfortably win this one against a team that’s putting up historically bad defensive numbers.
Picks: KC -10.5, Over 47.5
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