No one gave Baker Mayfield much of a shot to do much with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad coming into the year. Baker’s first month at the helm of the pirate ship looked pretty good - a 3-1 record with the only blemish coming against the defending NFC Champion Eagles. Heading into the bye, there was some real buzz around the Bucs running away with the NFC South.
Not so fast, my friends.
Baker’s Bucs have crashed down to earth after the bye week, scoring a grand total of 19 points over the last two games, both home losses. On a short week, the Bucs get to travel up to Buffalo to take on another offense suddenly stuck in the muck. After a three-game stretch averaging over 40 points per game, the Buffalo Bills have dropped to 14 and 25 the last two weeks (and yes, “dropping” to 25 would be great for many teams). The Bills have some real volatility to their game, but against a Bucs defense with plenty of quality playmakers and Baker’s offense struggling, I’m rolling with the under.
The spread is over a touchdown and honestly, the Bills have played in three straight one-score games including a 14-9 win over the Giants. I like the Bucs defense to keep it manageable for another close game that the Bills are able to salvage late with some Josh Allen magic. Your weekly reminder that Thursdays can be weirder than Sundays and Sundays have been weird lately.
Picks: Bucs +8.5, U43, Bills moneyline
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