This is not a Caleb Williams article, and don’t interpret it that way. If the Chicago Bears land the top pick in the NFL Draft, it’s going to be a wonderful thing for the franchise. They could potentially trade down and get a massive haul (bigger than last year) for that top pick, they can take the best player available, there are only positives that can happen if the Bears have that kind of ammunition in the 2024 NFL Draft.
We are approaching the midpoint of the season, and teams are starting to separate themselves. Of the teams that are struggling, some have better chances to earn the top overall spot than others.
As far as I’m concerned, once a team earns their fourth win of the season, that eliminates them from the first pick in the draft. I think, with the number of bad teams around the league, that it’s a pretty safe bet that the worst record in the NFL this year is going to have three wins or less.
With that though, the odds that the current three win teams grab one more victory over the last 10 games of the year is pretty strong, so let’s take a look at the odds of landing the 2024 first pick using ESPN’s FPI rankings for every team that currently has two wins or less.
8. Los Angeles Chargers 2-4 (0.1% chance)
FPI doesn’t see the Chargers landing in the top spot, and while this team is certainly struggling right now, as long as Justin Herbert is under center, the odds this team doesn’t find two more victories on their schedule is pretty much zero.
7. Tennessee Titans 2-4 (0.5%)
I certainly don’t think the odds are good that the Titans land the top pick but I certainly think their odds are better than this. With Ryan Tannehill banged up and Derrick Henry possibly being traded, this team could start stacking losses if Henry isn’t in the backfield and Malik Willis and Will Levis are playing quarterback.
6. Green Bay Packers 2-4 (1.9%)
Thanks goodness these odds are this low. I think we, as Bears fans, wouldn’t be able to survive one down year for the Packers and then they go and land another hall of fame caliber quarterback. With the way Jordan Love is playing, the Packers are going to lose a lot more than they will win in the second half of the season. I think the odds of tumbling to number one are low, but I think the odds are rather good that they end up firmly in the top ten of this draft.
5. New England Patriots 2-5 (2.0%)
Luckily, I don’t think Bill Belichick has it in his DNA to tank a season. It would be wise if he did. The Patriots aren’t going anywhere and they desperately need an upgrade at quarterback. If Belichick was able to land Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, he could give himself one more opportunity to try and push for a title without Tom Brady, but the way his current roster looks, he won’t be elevating to that level again before he retires, whenever that is.
4. New York Giants 2-5 (4.9%)
I think just about every NFL fan (and probably most New York Giants fans as well), understood that the Giants overachieved last year, but I don’t think anyone saw this coming. The Giants have certainly regressed and may determine that they are going to need a different quarterback moving forward if they are going to rebound. The Giants are a proud franchise and I couldn’t see the Mara family purposely trying to lose games and they should rebound a bit down the stretch, but if it doesn’t turn around soon, this will be a team to watch in December and January.
3. Denver Broncos 2-5 (6.2%)
I certainly think the Broncos odds are higher than this. They have a terrible defense, an offense without an identity and you can bet after a few games that Sean Payton doesn’t want Russell Wilson to be the quarterback for this team much longer. Plus, their schedule is pretty challenging. The Broncos are definitely a contender for this pick.
2. Arizona Cardinals 1-6 (34.9%)
And here the odds have jumped significantly. The Cardinals certainly have a strong change to land with the top overall pick. The interesting thing here is the Kyler Murray wild card. Murray should be back within the next couple of games and it will be interesting to see if he elevates this team and beats a couple of teams that Josh Dobbs isn’t capable of doing. For Bears fans, the sooner Murray is on the field, the better.
1. Chicago Bears 2-5 (44.9%)
The Bears odds are the strongest here, but they only have a 5.1% chance with their own pick to land the top spot, this is largely due to the winless Carolina Panthers holding a 39.8% chance of landing the top spot for Chicago. The Bears odds are so strong right now that they have a greater than 99.9% chance at landing a top five pick in the draft between the two picks. In fact, by my numbers, the Bears have a 36.1% chance of landing two picks in the top five.