The ultimate scenario could be unfolding for the Chicago Bears. There have been multiple experts starting to suggest that both the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts have targeted Bryce Young as their quarterback of the future. What does that mean? That means Ryan Poles could be in the perfect spot to play both these teams off each other to get the best offer.
With the Texans and Colts both in the AFC South, they are in a situation where if they do in fact love Young, it's not just about acquiring him to become your franchise QB, it's also about making sure your division rival doesn't end up with him where you have to play him 20 times over the next decade.
NFL draft expert Lance Zierlein recently discussed the Texans' situation at number two, and he thinks the Texans may make a move to get themselves into that top spot in the NFL Draft.
NFL Draft Analyst: The Texans WILL Trade Up to DRAFT Bryce Young! #houston #texans #nfl @johngranato @LanceZierlein pic.twitter.com/NxRk3YUqyv— ESPN 97.5 Houston (@espn975) February 16, 2023
Zierlein was emphatic in his comments. "I wish I had a ticket in Las Vegas for Texans trade up to one. I wish I had been able to make that in January because that prediction is coming true. The Texans are not going get beat for Bryce Young."
That isn't a hedge, and that certainly isn't a wild guess, that sounds like Zierlein is certain that the Texans are targeting Young and want to make sure he's their QB.
On the other side, we already know the Colts are interested in Young because Irsay couldn't help himself at a recent press conference. He was talking about potentially trading up and said "The Alabama guy doesn't look bad." The fact that Irsay brought him up probably had Chris Ballard wanting to crawl under the table.
NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah held a teleconference today with NFL media to discuss the NFL draft, and he also made it clear that he believes the Colts are looking to move up to one and secure their quarterback.
@MoveTheSticks going over draft. Said it’s obvious Colts need to get off vet QB carousel. Expects Chris Ballard to move up from No.4 to No. 1 to ensure getting his guy.— Mike Chappell (@mchappell51) February 24, 2023
‘I would not be sleeping well if I were going to sit tight there at No. 4.’
So what does this mean for the Chicago Bears? All good things, that's for sure. Again, it's early in the process, and we haven't even reached the combine yet, but you know these teams have been doing their due diligence on these quarterbacks. If the Colts and Texans both want Young and they also want to make sure their division rival doesn't get him, Ryan Poles should be able to create quite a nice haul for himself.
As many of you probably know, teams use a number value system for draft picks to help them trade picks and not find themselves getting fleeced. According to those charts (we will use the popular Jimmy Johnson chart for reference here), the Bears would have to land about 1200 points to move from 1 to 4 with the Colts. The Colts' second-round pick is worth about 550 points, and a future 2024 first should be worth about 600 points, so that gets them close. For the Texans to move up from 2 to 1, they need to offer up 400 points. Their second-round pick this year is worth about 580 points, so that's more than enough, according to the charts, to get the deal done.
But again, if the Colts and Texans both want Young, the conversation Poles has with Texans GM Nick Caserio is an easy one. "Nick, I know what the charts say, but the player we want is going to be available to us at two or at four. So why would I give up the 2024 first-round pick I'm getting from the Colts to move up two spots in the second round this year?" At that point, if the Texans want Young, they are going to have to throw the chart out the window and beat the Colts' offer. Would that mean the 12th pick as well? Could it mean the Texans' 2024 first-rounder? Both would be huge overpays by the Texans, but again, if they want Young and don't want the Colts to have him, they are in a tough spot (once again, thanks to Lovie Smith!).
It's early in the process, and these are just preliminary reports and opinions but if we are headed to a bidding war between the Colts and Texans for the top pick, Bears fans are going to be very happy when that trade is announced.