My Ideal Trade Down Scenario: Texans at 12

Long time, first time.

The Bears had a terrible roster this year, and in order to compete in '23/'24/'25, we need (conservatively) new players at WR1, TE1/2 (depending on how you view Kmet), RT1, LG1, DT1, DT2, DE1, DE2, WLB1, SLB1, and CB2/3 (depending on how you view Gordon). And that's just starters -- we could use upgrades to backups almost everywhere.

Everyone is talking about their ideal trade scenario for the Bears, and it largely comes down to 2 options:

1. Trade with the Colts at 4 and take one of Anderson or Carter.

2. Trade down twice to get 2 extra first round picks next year.

Scenario 1 seems great, but this only gets us a few extra picks so we can't address as many roster holes as needed. Scenario 2 seems better, but to my knowledge, multiple trade downs in the first for future firsts has rarely (ever?) happened, so it seems farfetched.

Fans really strongly want multiple first round picks -- a total of 4 between this year and next year (eg, end up at, say, 9 this year and have our 1st, Colts 1st, and Panthers 1st next year). I think the front office really strongly wants multiple high-quality picks this year to address roster holes as soon as possible.

There is one trade scenario that accomplishes both of these that has not been talked about enough: trading with the Texans at 12. I'll lay out the Jimmy Johnson and Rich Hill values below, pros for the Bears, and pros for the Texans.

JJ Chart: Texans receive 1.1 (3000). Bears receive 1.12 (1200), 2.2 (580), 3.2 (265), 3.10 (225), HOU '24 1st (430), CLE '24 1st (430), HOU '24 2nd (195), HOU '24 3rd (60). That comes out to 3385 points, which is about the 10% markup typically seen for a QB trade.

RH Chart: Texans receive 1.1 (1000). Bears receive 1.12 (347), 2.2 (180), 3.2 (78), 3.10 (65), HOU '24 1st (124), CLE '24 1st (124), HOU '24 2nd (57), HOU '24 3rd (25). That comes out to 1000 points exactly.

I would be over the moon with this trade. The Bears would get (1) 3 additional high-quality picks this year to help fill in the roster and (2) 3 first rounders next year, which gives them a ton of flexibility (to trade up for a QB if Fields doesn't work out, to trade up for Marvin Harrison Jr, to take 3 great players, or to trade down again next year).

Why would the Texans agree to a trade like this? Trading away 8 picks for 1 pick is a horrible strategy, right?

This trade would give the Texans the ability to do one of two things:

1. Ensure they get their QB1 and then take one of Anderson or Carter. They get to tell their fans that they turned Deshaun Watson, a guy who sat out all of '21 to force a trade within a year of signing a huge extension and who also probably sexually assaulted two dozen women (possibly more), into 2 face-of-the-franchise cornerstone players.

2. Ensure they get their QB1 and then trade down from 2 to recoup value. If they trade with the Panthers, they probably get back 1.9, 2.8, 2.30, CAR '24 1st, and CAR '24 2nd (JJ: 2600 for 2777; RH: 717 for 807). Functionally, this trade would turn the Texans' 1.2 and 1.12 this year into 1.1 and 1.9 for the cost of 3.10, HOU '24 1st, and HOU '24 3rd. If they trade down further than the Panthers, then they obviously recoup even more picks.

Option 2 accomplishes an additional thing for the Texans -- it guarantees the Colts and the Titans can, at best, draft QB3 this year. If the Colts get to the draft with no obvious QB1 on the roster, then this would be objectively hilarious.

This is my ideal trade scenario for the Bears. We stock up on picks this year and next, and the Texans either get to draft The Guy on both sides of the ball or steer the QB market away from their division rivals.

What are your thoughts?

This Fanpost was written by a Windy City Gridiron member and does not necessarily reflect the ideas or opinions of its staff or community.