"It's what Shakespeare's mission was - to illuminate our thoughts and struggles and bring about the possibility of getting the most we can out of a day as opposed to least in this brief moment we're here." -Mandy Patinkin

The mission of Ryan Poles is a simple, if not daunting one; get the most out of that #1 pick as possible. Going back to my previous fanpost I wrote up last year about draft value; teams value draft picks relatively close to the Jimmy Johnson chart in which future picks are valued at approximately the final pick of that round. For example, a 2024 1st would be valued right around 590 points.

Of course, the JJ draft chart has had its fair share of critics, but NFL teams seem to still use it. Now that study was based on the 2nd round alone. But using that model, you can see that most teams paid a 5-10% premium to move up to get their player, with a couple of outliers paying up to 20%. So now it’s time to look at 1st round trades for the last 5 years to get a look at the potential value Poles can expect for #1.

2022

Pre-Draft Trade:

Saints trade 18, 101, 237, 2023 1st, 2024 2nd to Eagles for 16, 19, 194 (Saints gain 1.73%)

Draft Day Trades:

Commanders trade 11 to Saints for 16, 98, 120 (Commanders lose 7%)

Vikings trade 12, 46 to Lions for 32, 34, 66 (Vikings lose 14%)

Texans trade 13 to Eagles for 15, 124, 162, 166 (Texans lose .14%)

Cards trade 23, 100 to Ravens for WR Marquise Brown placing a value on WR1b/2 at 860 points or around pick 20ish.

Eagles trade 18, 101 to Titans for WR AJ Brown placing a value on WR1 at 996 or around pick 16ish.

Patriots trade 21 to the Chiefs for 29, 94, 121 (Patriots lose 2%)

Ravens trade 23 to Bills for 25, 130 (Ravens lose .26%)

Titans trade 26, 101 to Jets for 35, 69, 163 (Titans gain 3.29%)

Bucs trade 27 to Jags for 33, 106, 180 (Bucs lose .35%)

2021

**Applicable trade:

**Dolphins trade 3 to the 49ers for 12, 2022 1st, 2022 3rd, 2023 1st (Dolphins gain 13.45%) – Trey Lance

Eagles trade 6, 156 to the Dolphins for 12, 123, 2022 1st (Eagles gain 12.82%)

Cowboys trade 10 to Eagles for 12, 84 (Cowboys gain 5.38%)

**Giants trade 11 to Bears for 20, 164, 2022 1st, 2022 4th (Giants gain 20.86%) – Justin Fields

Vikings trade 14, 143 to Jets for 23, 66, 86 (Vikings gain 4%)

Ravens trade Orlando Brown, 58, 2024 6th to Chiefs for 31, 64, 136, 2022 5th placing the current value of Brown at 600.8 or around pick 31ish.

There were 2 other trades involving safeties… but I didn’t bother with those because they were bonkers. All I can say is the Seahawks and Rams LOVE their DB’s.

2020

Pre-Draft Trade:

Bills trade 22, 169, 203, 2024 4th to Vikings for Stefon Diggs placing the value of WR1 at 860 points or around pick 19ish.

Draft Day Trades:

49ers trade 13, 245 to Bucs for 14, 117 (49ers gain .79%)

Vikings trade 25 to 49ers for 31, 117, 176 (Vikings lose 5.28%)

Patriots trade 23 to Chargers for 37, 71 (Patriots gain .66%)

**Dolphins trade 26 to Packers for 30, 136 (Dolphins lose 6%) – Jordan Love

2019

Broncos trade 10 to Steelers for 20, 52, 2020 3rd (Broncos gain 3.54%)

Seahawks trade 21 to Pack for 30, 114, 118 (Seahawks lose 7%)

Ravens trade 22 to Eagles for 25, 127, 197 (Ravens lose .18%)

Colts trade 26 to Commanders for 46, 2020 2nd (Colts gain 1.43%)

Seahawks trade 30 to Giants for 37, 132, 142 (Seahawks lose 2.42%)

Rams trade 31, 203 to Falcons for 45, 79 (Rams gain 5.53%)

2018

**Bucs trade 7, 255 to Bills for 12, 53, 56 (Bucs gain 27.3%) – Josh Allen

**Raiders trade 10 to Cards for 15, 79, 152 (Raiders lose 1.78%) – Josh Rosen

Packers trade 14 to Saints for 27, 147, 2019 1st (Packers gain 18.42%) F^@% the Packers!

Ravens trade 16, 154 to Bills for 22, 65 (Ravens gain 1.38%)

Seahawks trade 18, 248 to Pack for 27, 76, 186 (Seahawks gain .8%)

Ravens trade 22, 215 to Titans for 25, 125 (Ravens lose 2.47%)

Eagles trade 32, 132 to Ravens for 52, 125, 2019 2nd (Eagles gain 10.63%)

A couple of things really stick out:

A trade back in the top 10 nets you an average of 7.25% for non-QB trades.

A trade back in the top half of the draft nets you an average of 15.85% for a QB trade.

A trade back in the bottom half of the draft nets you nothing. It was practically a wash.

If the Vikings don’t select Jefferson with the #22 pick in 2020, they would have lost Stefon Diggs as well as a cumulative loss of 15.28% in 1st round trade value. If I am Poles and I don’t mind dropping to #23, the Vikings are my first call. With an average of 5.03% lost on each trade he could drop from the Panthers #9 pick he gets in a double trade back to #23 with the Vikings and ask for #87 and a 2024 1st rounder. Their front office is AWFUL at draft day trades.

So what would this look like for Poles? At a 15.85% average premium for a trade up for a QB, that puts a value on pick #1 of 3475.5. Anything above that is amazing value. Anything less than that but above the 10% mark of 3300 is still good value. Anything less than 3300 is poor value. So what could we expect from our potential suitors in this scenario?

Texans

2, 65, 2024 1st – 3455 points

Or….

12, 33, 65, 2024 1st, 2024 1st (CLE), 2024 2nd, Brandin Cooks (250) – 3751 points

In this scenario they pay close to the Josh Allen deal in trade value because they now have pick 1 and 2 of this draft.

Colts

4, 79, 2024 1st, Michael Pittman Jr WR1b/2 (860) – 3445 points

Raiders

7, 38, 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2025 1st – 3470 points

Falcons

8, 44, 110, 113, 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, 2025 1st – 3456 points

Panthers

9, 39, 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, Brian Burns (740) – 3460 points

Let’s hope Poles gets REAL trade value and waltzes into a 20%+ premium.

"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." -Also Mandy Patinkin