Week 3 game preview: Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs

SB Nation site: Arrowhead Pride

Record: 1-1

Last week: 17-9 win over the Jaguars

Game day, time, TV: Sunday, 3:25 p.m. CT, FOX

Spread: According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Kansas City Chiefs are 12.5-point favorites. The over/under for the game is 47.5.

Bears all-time record against: 7-6

Historical meetings: Week 2 of the 2007 season, the Bears went into Arrowhead and won their first game following their Super Bowl season.

The team was helped out by a 73-yard punt return from Devin Hester and 101 rushing yards from Cedric Benson.

Rex Grossman started it off by hitting OL John St. Clair for a touchdown early in the second quarter.

The Bears won 20-10.

Last meeting: Week 16 of 2019, in front of a Sunday Night Football audience, Patrick Mahomes embarrassed the Bears, throwing two touchdowns and rushing for another.

He counted on his fingers the number of picks of teams, including the Bears, that passed on him.

The QB that Ryan Pace passed over Mahomes for, Mitch Trubisky, went 18-for-34 for 157 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT.

The Bears lost 26-3.

Injury report: On Wednesday, the Chiefs had five players not participate, one limited and three listed as full participants.

Did not participate

• LB Nick Bolton (ankle)
• LB Willie Gay (quad)
• WR Richie James (knee)
• RB Isiah Pacheco (hamstring)
• WR Kadarius Toney (toe)

Limited

• CB L’Jarius Sneed (knee)

Offense: The Kansas City Chiefs come into the game ranked 22nd in points but ninth in yards.

Their rushing offense ranks 20th and their passing offense ranks sixth.

If you’re unfamiliar with Patrick Mahomes (62.5 pct cmp./531 yds./4 TD/2 INT), then I would seriously question your NFL fan credentials. He’s the best QB in the game at the moment.

His weapons have struggled early in the season. His favorite target, Travis Kelce (4 rec./26 yds./1 TD),

who missed week one, is back but was quiet last week.

His other weapons include Kadarius Toney (6/36/0), Justin Watson (5/107/1), Skyy Moore (3/70/1), TE Noah Gray (6/69), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4/61), and Rashee Rice (45/49/1).

Toney had a terrible week one game, dropping several passes. Watson and Moore are the speed threats, as noted by their 21.4 and 23.3 yards-per-catch averages, respectively.

On the ground, Isiah Pacheco (20 att./93 yds./0 TD) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (7/22/0) are getting the bulk of the work. Jerrick McKinnon (1/-2/0) does more damage as a pass-catcher (4/34/0).

Don’t sleep on Mahomes (13/75/0), who is actually the second-leading rusher on the team. The Chiefs, through two games, have zero rushing touchdowns.

Defense: The Chiefs defense comes into this game ranked third in points allowed and 13th in yards allowed.

Their passing defense ranks 19th and their rushing defense ranks 12th.

Chris Jones (1.5 sk/1 TFL/2 QB hits) is back and already balled out in one game. George Karlaftis (1.5 sk/2 TFL/2 QB hits), Michael Danna (1.5 sk/1 TFL/2 QB hits) and Felix Anudike-Uzomah (0.5 sk/1 FF/2 QB hits) have been getting after opposing QBs, too.

In the secondary L’Jarius Sneed (2 PD/1 FR/13 tkl), Justin Reid (2 PD/12 tkls) and Trent McDuffie (1 PD/11 tkls/1 FF) are keeping it locked in on opposing pass catchers.

The Chiefs love to blitz. They’ve blitzed on 37.6 percent of the time.

Key match ups: Where do we even start? The Bears are going to be so out-classed and out-coached and out-schemed here.

The offensive line, down their starting left tackle, needs to contain a Chiefs defensive line that has five sacks already.

Chris Jones in the middle against Lucas Patrick, Nate Davis (hopefully he’s back?) and Cody Whitehair is going to be key to keeping Justin Fields up right.

Speaking of him, ideally, after the first couple of games down for him, hopefully he can convince Luke Getsy to call some better plays for him and then cut loose.

On the defensive side; pressure, pressure, pressure. The Bears were so close so many times against Baker Mayfield in the Bucs game. But it doesn’t matter, finish those plays.

Containing Patrick Mahomes is the real key. If he gets outside the pocket he can still sling it, if he has time inside the pocket, he’ll picket you apart.

Get off the field on third down.

Key stats

• According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bears have the second-most missed tackles in the league, trailing only the Seahawks (21 to 23).
• The Chiefs rank 22nd in third down efficiency on offense. They are converting a third of their third down attempts.
• The Bears defense ranks 31st in third down defense. Opponents are picking up 54 percent of their third downs.
• The Bears haven’t scored more than 20 offensive points since week 11 last season when they scored 24 points against the Falcons. That game was on Nov. 20.
• Chicago hasn’t played a game without an offensive turnover since the Dolphins game last year (week 9).
• The Bears are -4 in turnover differential while the Chiefs are -2.
• Patrick Mahomes has nine career 400-yard passing games. The Chicago Bears franchise has six such games.
• The Chiefs have yet to score more than 20 points this season. This is the longest two-game stretch of them failing to score more than 24 points since weeks 7-9 in 2021.
• The last time the Chicago Bears defeated the current Super Bowl champions was in 2013 when they beat the Baltimore Ravens in Chicago 23-20 in overtime. That game was famously delayed by thunderstorms.

What will it take for the Bears to beat the reigning Super Bowl champs?